Africa’s Journey towards Adaptation, where we are and where we need to go
By Dr.Linda Ogallo, Dr Tedd Moya and Dr Olufunso Somorin with contributions from the IGAD Climate Change Technical Working Group
To assess global progress on climate action in accordance with the Paris Agreement, state parties are required to conduct a “global stocktake” (GST) commencing this year (2023) and recurring every five years. Countries should then use the insights from the stocktake to inform their subsequent set of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submissions. NDCs are the national climate pledges that each Party to the Paris Agreement is required to develop. They articulate how each country will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to climate impacts. NDCs comprise short- to medium-term targets and include measures for both adaptation and mitigation action. The Paris Agreement provided a global framework for climate action that, when implemented, addresses the interconnected, sustainable development goals. This article highlights progress on adaptation.
From a continental perspective, African Heads of State, at the first Africa Climate Summit, called the global community to urgently reduce emissions. The urgency of this call was reiterated by the recently released synthesis report of the first global stocktake (GST), which showed that;
The window to keep limiting warming to 1.5 °C within reach is closing rapidly, and progress is still inadequate based on the best available science. Global GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and, at the latest before, 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50 percent) with no or limited overshoot and in those that limit warming to 2°C (>67 percent) and assume immediate action’ ~ GST 2023.
In simpler terms, we are not doing well.
Global Progress on Adaptation
According to the GST, while adaptation finance has increased in the last five years, efforts were fragmented, incremental, sector-specific, and unequally distributed across regions. In Africa, adaptation is generally measured by the number of farmers adopting climate-smart agriculture with less focus given to the drivers of vulnerability, which often leads to maladaptive outcomes (Hellin et.al, 2003; Eriksen et. All, 2021).
Adaptation efforts to date have not yet driven the broad changes necessary to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability.
These results are reiterated in the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2023 Adaptation Gap Report.
Research shows that many adaptation efforts are counterproductively increasing vulnerability instead of reducing it primarily due to the complexity of climate change risk and multi-dimensional vulnerability (Ayanlade et. al 2023; Schipper, 2022; Eriksen et. All, 2021). Adaptation is a factor of climate risk, exposure, and vulnerability. Addressing adaptation, therefore, requires addressing all three factors.
The efforts to meet the Paris Agreement by reducing emissions is one way to reduce the human impacts on the severity and intensity of climate impacts. Communities can better understand and prepare for climate risk through climate risk pooling, climate- smart agriculture, and early warning systems that support the production and dissemination of climate information through climate services. These efforts, however, do not always understand or address the root causes of vulnerability.
When adaptation is informed and driven by local contexts, populations, and priorities, both the adequacy and the effectiveness of adaptation action and support are enhanced, which can also promote transformational adaptation’~ GST 2023 .
Legal Considerations for the Global Stocktake
The GST has several legal implications for both Parties to the Paris Agreement and non-party stakeholders, including obligations related to transparency, accountability, ambition enhancement, equity, and dispute resolution. Parties are mandated to participate transparently and inclusively in the GST process, submitting information on their progress in implementing the Paris Agreement and reviewing GST findings when updating their NDCs. New and more ambitious NDCs are required to be pledged every five years. This is known as the “ratcheting up” mechanism.
The Paris Agreement recognises that countries have different capabilities and capacities, so NDCs are designed to be flexible and allow governments to determine their level of ambition. However, parties are legally bound to participate in this incrementally ambitious GST process with potential legal implications for countries that appear to insufficiently contribute to the global effort to combat climate change. These consequences are not threatening enough; leaving more questions than answers. Bodansky5, reviewing the UN Climate Change regime over the last 30 years, states,
Thus far, despite all of the agreed words on paper, there has been little if any change in the upward trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions. Is the Paris Agreement likely to change this? After many false starts, is the regime finally on track to successfully address the climate change problem?
Non-party stakeholders, including private sector, civil society organisations, and sub-national governments, are encouraged to participate in the GST and have access to information and deliberations. This legal framework underscores the GST’s role in shaping the global response to climate change, enhancing accountability among Parties for their Paris Agreement commitments, and promoting transparency and inclusiveness in the climate change process. But is this enough?
Specific legal considerations and implications for the GST encompass adherence to Paris Agreement principles, such as equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), use of the best available scientific knowledge, consideration of the needs of developing countries and vulnerable communities, the maintenance of objective and transparent findings, and the facilitation of inclusivity and accessibility for all stakeholders. These legal aspects underscore the GST’s importance in the global climate action landscape.
We foresee continuous emphasis on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR-RC) and its implications for adaptation action in Africa over the next few years and calls for the GST to reflect the differing responsibilities of developed and developing countries in addressing climate change. Legal discussions around how the GST operationalises CBDR-RC are necessary to ensure that there is just and equitable treatment of countries worldwide.
The African Position as per the Nairobi Declaration
African leaders recognized the compounding climate risks in the context of rapid urbanization and poverty that is increasing vulnerability and turning cities into disaster hotspots. The Heads of States highlighted the continued global disparity in the climate change conversation shown by for example, the skewed minimal returns, despite the continent’s natural resources, representing forty percent of the world’s renewable energy resources.
African countries face disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change-related unpredictable weather events and patterns, including prolonged droughts, devastating floods, out-of-season storms, and wildfires, which cause massive humanitarian crisis with detrimental impacts on economies, health, education, peace and security, among other risks.’ ~ ACS 2023.
In addition to the strong call to meet the global commitments of the Paris Agreement, the declaration reflected the need for action and investments in the continent’s economy through a green growth and circular economy agenda that would see to among other things, job creation. Research shows that despite being described separately, significant large socio-economic dynamics interact to shape small-scale systems of resource access and livelihood and the social discrimination of climate risk at the local level. For instance, growing foreign debts work together to erode state capacity, obstruct public spending on health and other social programs, and probably deter private investment (Ayanlade, 2023). The reaffirmation of the need to reform the multilateral financial system in order to address debt management in the continent emphasizes its importance and urgent nature.
The declaration called on increasing Africa’s renewable generation capacity from 56 Giga Watts (GW) in 2022 to at least 300 GW by 2030. This target aims to address energy poverty while also contributing to the global supply of cost-effective clean energy for industries. In order to successfully design climate policies, transition towards a climate-friendly economy, and achieve climate goals in the continent, affordable and clean energy must be prioritized.
Priorities for COP28
The GST calls for transformative adaptation, where adaptation is seen as a social change process that also entails transforming systems and structures (Eriksen et. All, 2021).
To strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, governments need to support systems transformations that mainstream climate resilience and low GHG emissions development through whole-of-society approaches and integrated, inclusive policymaking’ ~ ACS 20237.
As member states negotiate at COP28, some issues remain pertinent for the region:
- Increase of global commitment to meet the 1.5 °C target, particularly in the context of historical emissions, keeping the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
- Access to climate finance in fragile context: with five of the eight member states in the IGAD region being classified as fragile and conflict-affected, the operationalisation of the Loss & Damage facility should prioritise access in this context.
- A reform of the multilateral financial system: while not an agenda in the UNFCCC process, debt relief in the region continues to make it impossible for member states to build resilience to climate risk.
- Strengthening multisectoral coordination: a whole-of-society and whole-of-government approach to climate action requires increased coordination across climate and development policies to manage risks comprehensively and provide support to impacted communities.
Conclusion
By facilitating a comprehensive assessment of global efforts in the context of the Paris Agreement, the GST provides African nations with a platform to gauge the effectiveness of their adaptation strategies, share best practices, and advocate for increased support from international stakeholders. It underscores the pressing requirement for heightened climate action and increased support for adaptation in Africa. The continent, despite its minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, bears a disproportionate burden of climate change impacts.
Key challenges and opportunities identified by the GST for climate adaptation in Africa include bolstering resilience to climate impacts, necessitating early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and disaster preparedness. Additionally, scaling up adaptation finance is imperative, urging developed countries to fulfill their climate finance commitments, while exploring innovative financing mechanisms. Equally critical is the need to enhance local capacity for adaptation, entailing the development of national adaptation plans, investments in research, and empowering local communities.
Integrating climate adaptation into development planning is paramount, considering the cross-cutting nature of climate change across all development sectors. African nations should mainstream adaptation into their national strategies to address these concerns.
In preparation for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025, the GST, the deliberations of the Africa Climate Summit, and the theatre of COP28 offer a pivotal opportunity for African countries to reinforce their climate adaptation efforts and call on the rest of the world to forge a resilient future for their populations.
If correctly implemented, the impact of the GST on climate adaptation in Africa can be profound, as it not only holds Parties accountable for their commitments but also encourages the international community to prioritise the unique vulnerabilities and needs of African countries, thereby fostering a more resilient and sustainable future for the continent in the face of climate change.
