From climate forecasts driven actions to sustainability: Strengthening cross-border early warning systems in the Karamoja Cluster
By Hussein Mohamed, Dr Geoffrey Sabiiti and Dr Ahmed Amdihun
In the vast and rugged landscapes of the Karamoja Cluster — stretching from Uganda’s semi-arid northeast into the arid borderlands of northern Kenya — climate extremes have long dictated the rhythm of life. This cross-border region, home to millions of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, has endured relentless cycle of droughts, floods, disease outbreaks, and violent conflicts. Here, livelihoods are deeply tied to rain-fed systems, and when the rain fails, the ripple effects are devastating. Animals die. Crops fail. Families relocate. Borders blur as pastoralists traverses from one country to another in search of pasture and water, at times igniting tensions along the way.
Yet, with all its vulnerabilities, Karamoja is not just a region of hardship — it is also home to deeply resilient communities with rich traditions, and ongoing socio-economic transformations. Over the past few years, governments, communities, scientists, and development partners have come together across borders to reimagine how risk is managed. Through bold investments in early warning systems, the integration of indigenous knowledge, cross-border peacebuilding, and livelihood diversification, the people of Karamoja are reshaping their understanding of risk. They are no longer simply reacting to drought; they are anticipating and preparing for it, listening to not only their elders but also to downscaled forecasts from regional and national centers.
At the heart of this transformation lies numerous interventions from IGAD such as the Strengthening Capacity of IGAD to Increase Drought Resilience in the Horn of Africa (SCIDA III) project — funded by the German government through German Development Cooperation (GIZ), implemented with IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and other partners. The intervention has supported the development of cross-border early warning systems, community preparedness planning, and collaborative knowledge-sharing across Kenya and Uganda. Through this initiative, a regional network of meteorologists, drought preparedness officers, elders, and peacebuilders now work in harmony to bridge science and indigenous knowledge transforming early warning into early action. The story that follows traces how this initiative and other interventions — alongside the resilience of local communities — has redefined what is possible in a region long known for its vulnerability.
At the core of ICPAC’s support is the development of a cross-border, multi-hazard early warning system and bulletins, a product that blends scientific forecasts, local knowledge, and risk advisories into a user-friendly, community-focused early warning tool.
Now in its fourth edition, the bulletin integrates satellite data from the East Africa Drought Watch, seasonal forecasts from Kenya and Uganda’s national meteorological departments, and indigenous knowledge indicators — such as livestock behavior, wind patterns, and moon cycles. These bulletins deliver timely insights on drought risk, rainfall performance, pasture conditions, water availability, and peace and security, enabling communities and authorities to anticipate hazards and plan responses proactively.
“This is not just a document,” “It’s a living system. We use it to anticipate risk, advise communities, and plan responses before disasters hit.” says Janan Edonu, focal point for risk management in Moroto District and the district entomologist.
Dissemination is at the heart of the system’s success. ICPAC and its partners work through diverse communication channels — local radios, extension agents, chiefs’ barazas, churches, mosques, WhatsApp groups, and even market day events as well as piloting a mobile alert system called HUSIKA. “We use drama groups to act out the advisories,” explains Janan. “It resonates better when people see the message played out in their own language.”
One of the most impactful components of the early warning information dissemination is the Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) process. These forums bring together meteorologists, traditional weather forecasters, livestock officers, and community leaders from both Kenya and Uganda to co-produce climate advisories. The contribution from the West Pokot meteorological department has been particularly significant.
As the West Pokot County Director of Meteorology explains: “Knowledge is shared. Traditional forecasters read the stars and livestock behavior. We provide the scientific one. Together, we create an integrated forecast.” This approach not only strengthens the relevance and usability of climate information but also ensures mutual respect between scientific and indigenous knowledge systems.
District disaster management committees in Moroto and Amudat in Uganda, and West Pokot in Kenya, have been trained through SCIDA III to review bulletins, develop contingency plans, and coordinate local preparedness. These institutional structures, linked to technical forecasts provided by ICPAC and national meteorological services, are bridging the long-standing gap between early warning and early action.
“We’ve learned that information is power,” says Seth Makola Mussemi, Drought Information Officer for Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) in West Pokot. “But only if it reaches the people in time, in a way they can understand — and with the resources to act.”
The West Pokot meteorological department echoes the importance of cross-border collaboration, emphasizing: “In Karamoja, we now know that droughts don’t recognize borders- so our solutions must cross them too.”
Despite progress, challenges remain. Some areas continue to face communication gaps, technical forecasts do not always reach all users in accessible formats, and limited resources can delay timely response. However, the transformation is clear. Early warning is no longer a report left on a shelf — it is a shared tool, co-created, interpreted, and acted upon by the very communities it is meant to protect.
One of the key lessons from SCIDA III is the value of localized climate information and the power of community participation. The project’s success in the Karamoja Cluster demonstrates that while droughts may not respect borders, resilience can be fostered through the right tools, partnerships, and shared knowledge.
As climate variability continues to pose challenges to pastoral systems in East Africa, the experience gained from Karamoja provides a model for cross-border climate risk management. This approach is rooted in local ownership, indigenous knowledge, and the effectiveness of early warning systems.
