By Nicolas Bellet
With contributions from the ICPAC Climate Change Technical Working Group.
The Conference of Parties, or the world’s top forum on the climate crisis, is just a few days away.
It is set against the backdrop of catastrophic flooding in Pakistan and Nigeria, record droughts in the Horn of Africa and China, long spells of heatwaves over Europe and India and record-breaking hurricanes hitting the United States.
This year’s gathering is expected to focus on whether wealthy nations that have emitted most of the carbon dioxide historically fueling climate change should compensate for ‘loss and damage’ to developing countries that have not contributed significantly to the problem and are the least prepared for its impacts.
A delegation of ICPAC’s experts will attend the conference in Sharm El Sheikh (Egypt). Here, they share their hopes and expectations for this milestone summit.
Dr Guleid Artan, Director of the IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC):
As an African, I want the world to realize that we are bearing the brunt of climate change. For us, it is a daily reality. Our continent has already warmed by at least 1.8 degree compared to pre-industrial times, and we’re going from one extreme to another — from floods to droughts.
Up until now, the focus has been on mitigating climate change. It is now urgent to work on adaptation, and countries who have created this crisis must step up and be really part of the solution. I thought we had an agreement for USD 100 billion to be given each year by developed nations to fund adaptation in developing countries, but we haven’t seen much of it.
My hope is that, following up from COP26 in Glasgow, a clear implementation plan can be agreed. Politically, the situation is more favorable. The US is back in the game. Still, the American mid-term elections could change that and, given the size of the task ahead of us, there’s a long way to go.
Dr Ahmed Amdihun, Disaster Risk Management Programme Coordinator, ICPAC:
We must step up climate action and this time with a focus on words and commitments to actions. It is good news that the EU has reaffirmed its commitment to climate action including the USD 100 billion each year. This must now be followed by other emitters.
Transparency is important; therefore, I believe a Global Solidarity for Adaptation Actions should be set up. It’s been reported that 25% of the funds for adaptation measures have been disbursed already, but without any trace particularly in Africa where institutions like ICPAC and local communities need to access this funding.
We must also work on policy. The way we’re handling climate change is, in my view, a bit fragmented.
We must bring coherence between the different agreements and commitments that drive the climate agenda (Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework, SDG Declaration, to name a few). We’ll reach our objectives faster if we bring consistency and alignment.
Finally, I hope that the concept of anticipatory action can be mainstreamed in all commitments made at COP. Early warning systems for multi-hazards play a huge role for effective disaster risk reduction and enhancing community resilience.
Dr Philip Omondi, Climate Change Specialist, ICPAC:
Most countries in Africa, including in the IGAD region, do not have the right technical skills to write project proposals to get money for adaptation. As Africans, we must put our house in order, adopt the correct standards, and prepare solid proposals when we request funding.
In any case, the amounts we’re talking about are largely insufficient. Look at the Nationally Determined Contribution of Kenya, for instance. The country needs 60 billion dollars in the next five years to reach its objectives in reducing emissions and adapting to climate change. So, USD 100 billion per year globally simply won’t do the job.
On the question of loss and damages, the standards are not adapted to the African context. As an example, housing that is part of an informal settlement and has been damaged by floods is not eligible for compensation because it was not a “solid construction”, but this is how most houses are built in this part of the world! The same goes for the loss of livestock, which is not covered in case of drought.
We are so close to 2030. Even if we are given everything we are asking for, time is extremely short. I hope people come to COP with a clean heart and an open mind, but still some key players are not putting all their cards on the table when it comes to loss and damages.
Dr Linda Ogallo, Climate Adaptation Expert, ICPAC:
I’m a pragmatist and I feel that a lot of the debate around climate change is still very theoretical. We haven’t quite yet figured out how to decarbonize the entire world. We talk about the electrification of transport in Africa but if you want to buy an electric car in Kenya, it’s 10 million shillings (100,000 USD). Who can afford this?
As Africans, we also talk a lot about loss and damages. I am going to ruffle a few feathers here, but we haven’t seen any western country compensate for atrocities they have committed in the past, so why do we think climate change would be the first? There might be goodwill but realistically, with the whole world facing inflation, money is scarce. The solution for adaptation cannot only come from the loss and damage negotiations, the need is too big.
Most of our nations are very young, and we still have a lot of teething problems. Our institutional infrastructures are not always the best and corruption is still a huge issue, so even the resources we have are often badly used. My hope is that the private sector steps in. Look at mobile money. It was born out of Kenya, and it has revolutionized the banking industry globally.
There’s a lot of technology that is being introduced and that can allow us to leapfrog as a region and solve some of the problems. Rainfall for instance: most vulnerable famers rely on rainfed agriculture and they either have too much or too little rain. Why can’t we use technology to improve on the availability of water? Desalination technologies could be a game changer for a country like Somalia that has one of the longest coastlines in Africa and where people are currently on the brink of famine. Of course, there are other underlying issues, but nothing that seems insurmountable, especially if we engage with research institutions and the private sector and its capacity for innovation through smart funding mechanisms.
Lastly, whoever controls the purse controls the coins. So as Africans, we must come together and define what our problems are and what we want the solutions to be. If we always go to negotiations as a recipient, it is very difficult for us to set the terms.
Africa is a huge market, it’s the next wave of the future, there are a lot more opportunities that we don’t see as African people, but that we can seize them if we can begin to articulate what we need and what we can offer one another.
