5 Reasons Climate Change Adaptation Efforts in Africa are Falling Short
By Dr Linda Ogallo
With Contributions by ICPAC’s Climate Change Working Group
Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change despite having minimal contributions to emissions; the continent is projected to have reached 2°C of warming by 2030 (IPCC, 2022). The scientists further project a negative impact of global warming on food systems in Africa mainly due to associated negative impacts, including shifting of cropping seasons, shortening the length of growing periods, more irregular and unpredictable rainfall patterns, unsuitable cropping conditions as a result of increased temperatures and increasing water stress, among others.
In Eastern Africa, however, the changes in climate extremes are not just a future threat, as vulnerable communities are already facing a series of concurrent unprecedented climate risks compounded by other global stressors.
Climate change adaptation offers a realistic pathway to dealing with all these complexities and challenges. However, some challenges in achieving the continental adaptation goal remain and are highlighted below.
1. Early Warning Limitations
The Horn of Africa has experienced unprecedented flooding that began in 2019 into 2020 that was followed by a desert locust invasion in 2020, a situation not seen in some parts of the region in the last 70 years. The invasion was followed by an unprecedented drought lasting for five consecutive seasons, negatively impacting key socio-economic facets and livelihoods.
According to recent projections from climate scientists globally, El Nino phenomena, usually associated with enhanced rainfall and likelihood of flooding in the equatorial region, is expected in the coming short rainy season, with a 90% probability.
However, climate models can only project with medium accuracy three months ahead. Rainfall predictions, for example, are given with a 50–45% likelihood of accuracy for the most likely scenario, while temperature projections for the season are sometimes as high as 98% accurate.
Most of the seasonal forecasts in the continent are downscaled from global model outputs provided by global centres, as the continent lacks climate models tailored to its unique climate. While more and more scientists try to improve the seasonal forecast, the data required is often sparse and inconsistent.
To address this issue, researchers are exploring the potential of machine learning techniques, although their impacts are yet to be determined. Additionally, most adaptation strategies designed for vulnerable communities in the region did not foresee five years of continuous and unprecedented climate stress compounded by a pandemic and a global economic crisis brought about by external stressors.
Adaptation planning requires ‘futures’ and ‘foresight’ methodologies that move from relying on past and current realities to embracing uncertainty and encouraging analysis and consideration of future possibilities to inform decision-making.
2. Governance Challenges
African countries have set ambitious climate change targets and renewed commitments, as seen in their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and related national and regional strategies.
However, these efforts often rely heavily on external funding, which is limited and sometimes unavailable. Even where resources and early warning information are available, inefficient institutional infrastructure has led to slow policy implementation and inadequate responses to climate-related disasters (Zheng et al., 2019; Ozor and Nyambane, 2020 Zinngrebe et al., 2020; Nemakonde et al., 2021).
A siloed approach to adaptation has meant incoherent and fragmented responses to the climate crisis in many countries. Additionally, weak or non-existent sub-national institutions, coupled with limited access to climate finance, further exacerbate these challenges (Paterson et al., 2017; Musah-Surugu et al., 2019; Andrijevic et al., 2020).
The result has been a proliferation of non-governmental and international organization operating in the continent that hijack the climate change agenda and create unsustainable systems that last as long as their funding period and create donor dependency while undermining the governments’ central role. Strong government coordination and utilizing existing bottom-up structures within the government are crucial to developing effective national adaptive strategies.
3. ‘Silo’ Approaches
Climate change is a complex global problem that needs a holistic approach to effectively address its impacts and opportunities. Compared to other issues, climate change does not neatly fit into existing sectors and therefore requires mechanisms that promote interactions and collaborations between people working in different sectors and disciplines.
Similarly, vulnerability is not often tied to climatic factors but to socio-economic, governance, and cultural factors and, in some places, driven by fragility. Therefore, adaptation requires building effective early warning systems and addressing the root causes of vulnerability which are often context-specific and, in most cases, systemic.
In most cases, national adaptation plans look at a single hazard and its impact on a single sector at a time (IPCC, 2022), yet climate impacts are interlinked and need cross-sectoral and integrated approaches. Effective adaptation demands ‘a whole of government’ approach that coordinates vertically and horizontally, with a clear and consistent political commitment to effectively embed climate adaptation objectives into all relevant government activities ( Canadian Climate Institute, 2023).
4. Transboundary Climate Risks
Complex climate risks that are transboundary and cascading remain a weak spot in climate policy (Anisimov, A., Magnan, A. K. (eds.) (2023)). Transboundary climate risks are defined as climate risks that cross national borders (Adaptation Without Borders, 2023).
Some transboundary risks are non-climatic. For example, the war in Ukraine and its impact on oil and food prices outside of the region amplified the impact of the drought in the Horn of Africa (IGAD, 2023).
As the push for continental free trade grows, it is crucial to analyze the transboundary and interconnected nature of trade in the region, particularly in relation to climate risks in agriculture. This examination should encompass the entire agricultural value chain at regional, continental, and global scales and consider not only risks to agricultural production but also to infrastructure.
Additionally, while adequate attention has been given to transboundary water bodies in the water sector, insufficient planning and attention have been allocated to transboundary groundwater. This is especially important when groundwater reserves extend across international or political boundaries.
Therefore, national governments must adopt a broader perspective and anticipate risks that may jeopardize the effectiveness of their adaptation strategies by looking beyond their own borders.
5. Poverty and Development
It is impossible to converse on resilience without highlighting the developmental gaps in the continent. Vulnerable communities in Africa are largely plagued by significant challenges related to access to basic necessities such as education, healthcare, and energy. These challenges create cycles of generational poverty that cannot be adequately addressed by early warning systems alone.
Moreover, conflict-stricken and fragile regions face heightened difficulties attracting investment for development initiatives, exacerbating their marginalization (AfDB, 2013; IMF, 2018). Increasingly, African countries are mainstreaming adaptation into their long-term development cycles (IPCC, 2022).
The Eastern African region, in particular, urgently requires significant financial investment in development, even in the face of fragility and conflict. The demand for humanitarian assistance consistently surpasses the available resources, making it even more critical to address this situation urgently. The nexus between humanitarian response, development, and peace continues to grow (Nguya & Siddiqui, 2020; Peters, Balfour & Osorio, 2023).
In addition to these developmental gaps, climate change’s impacts can reverse progress in various development sectors, including agriculture, water resources, health, and infrastructure (WMO, 2020). Therefore, incorporating climate change adaptation into development planning becomes imperative to safeguard and further development progress.
By integrating adaptation strategies and considering climate-related hazards, Africa can better protect its developmental gains against the destructive forces of climate change.
In conclusion, Africa’s response to climate change and efforts in building resilience is crucial for securing a sustainable future for the continent. While it faces significant challenges, such as disproportionate impacts and vulnerabilities, limited resources, and governance issues, Africa can learn from past experiences and integrate climate change adaptation into development planning.
By adopting a holistic and collaborative approach, addressing poverty and development gaps, and strengthening early warning systems, Africa can effectively navigate the challenges of climate change and embrace opportunities for sustainable growth.
